MOVIE BREAK: OSCAR PREDICTIONS

So, I don't write too much about movies here, but since I've seen all ten films nominated for Best Picture, I thought I'd give this year's Oscars a post on No Expiration.  (Also, I'll be on SiriusXM OutQ's The Morning Jolt with Larry Flick talking with Larry and Keith Price about the Oscars tomorrow morning).

But I'll start with music. The one category where I really want someone to win is Best Score, which is a really tough category. I am definitely a fan of A.R. Rahman, who previously did really well at the Oscars with Slumdog Millionaire.  I love his score to 127 Hours. And Hans Zimmer is one of the greatest film scorers of all time, and the music in Inception was incredible. But my vote (if I were a voter) would go to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network. They already won the Golden Globe for it.  I love the classic Hans Zimmer type score, and actually yesterday I watched Inception and Social Network back to back: I just think Trent's score did a bit more for Social Network than Hans' did for Inception.

Best Song, I go with A.R. Rahman's "If I Rise" from 127 Hours, which he co-wrote with Dido and her brother/Faithless bandmate Rollo Armstrong. I always like Randy Newman's songs, and he did a nice one for Toy Story 3, but I'm with Rahman on this one.

Here's my rundown of Best Picture nominees:

Black Swan: I didn't know that I'd be that interested in a film about ballet, but it was incredible. Darren Aronofsky is a master director at the top of his game.  Lots of hype over how much Natalie Portman prepared for the role of a ballerina, but what impressed me more was how she portrayed a woman slipping into madness.

The Fighter: really gripping film based on a true story about a boxer who had to weigh his career against his (dysfunctional) family ties. David O. Russell is a great director, and I think it's Mark Wahlberg's best role ever (I think he's kind of one-note in many of his movies, he showed more depth here). Great use of Boston music in this Beantown-based film, by the way.

Inception: Loved it, but it's not for everyone. Director Chistopher Nolan is one of the best there is. A real head trip of a film.

The Kids Are Alright: Wonderful smaller film. Loved everything about it. Except one thing: how did they not use The Who's song?

The King's Speech: The kind of movie the old-guard loves. Yeah, we make millions of dollars a year on exploitative, cynical, pandering, dumb movies.  But hey, sometimes we can get our "masterpiece theater" on and be all high culture!  Uplifting message! Historical! True story!  Helena Bonham Carter! My cynicism aside, it was a very good movie, but not one I'd vote for against the rest of these.

127 Hours: Amazing movie, and I'll never watch it again! Danny Boyle is another unbelievable director, and James Franco, one of the best young actors out there. And A.R. Rahman's music is its own character.

The Social Network: some have said that it will age quickly and not well.  I don't know about that. David Fincher, another one of the greats, took what could have been a dull story, and made a thrilling movie. And Trent Reznor's music it its own character.  I think a lot of young voters may vote for this - but there's more older voters, so I bet King's Speech wins.

Toy Story 3: just a wonderful film.  Everything worked, and this is one people be watching as long as they are watching movies. It easily wins Best Animated Film, don't think it wins Best Picture.

True Grit: great western. The Coen Brothers are back in No Country For Old Men mode, after last year's really really boring Oscar nominated A Serious Man. A brutal, badass film. Jeff Bridges was incredible, and so was Hailee Steinfeld. Someone asked me how could possibly be in a western, but he did well.

Winter's Bone: has the least amount of hype, no stars, and I bet 75% of people watching the Oscars tonight haven't even heard of it.  Hopefully that changes.  It's a phenomenal film, and the star, Jennifer Lawrence was incredible.

If I were a voter, I'd probably be deciding between Winter's Bone, Social Network and The Kids Are Alright, but I think The King's Speech will probably win.

Best Actor: Javier Bardem from Bituful (which I've also seen), Jeff Bridges from True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg from Social Network, Colin Firth from King's Speech and Oscar co-host and 127 Hours co-star James Franco are nominated. I have no idea how I'd vote for this one, they were all incredible, but I bet Firth wins.

Best Actress: Annette Benning from The Kids Are Alright, Winter's Bone's Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman are nominated along with Nicole Kidman from Rabbit Hole and  Michelle Williams from Blue Valentine (I haven't seen the latter two). I predict Benning wins, and she would deserve it, although I also loved Portman and Lawrence.

Best Supporting Actor: The Fighter's Christian Bale, Winter's Bone's John Hawkes (who I'd never heard of), Mark Ruffalo from The Kids Are Alright, Geoffrey Rush from The King's Speech and Jeremy Renner from The Town. I really liked Ruffalo, but I'd probably eliminate him, but I don't know how I'd vote for the other four.  As for my prediction, I think Rush will win, but Bale could take it.

Best Supporting Actress: this is the only easy category for me, I'd go for Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit, other than the fact that she was really the star of the film and should be up for Best Lead Actress.  The Fighter's Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were both really intense. I like Helena Bonham Carter too - I haven't seen the other film, Animal Kingdom, whose Jacki Weaver was nominated.

Best Director: don't think I could even decide here, it's a bunch of my favorite directors all at the top of their respective games: Black Swan's Darren Aronofsky, The Fighter's David O. Russell, The Social Network's David Fincher and True Grit's Coen Brothers.  The King's Speech's Tom Hooper is also nominated. I have no idea who will win this one.

I've only seen two of the Best Documentary features.  I liked the well-hyped Exit Through The Gift shop, not least because it skewers "cool."  It shows how easily hipsters are duped. That said, I hope Restrepo wins, it is a doc about what American soldiers go through in the Middle East.

Adapted screenplay is 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter's Bone. And original screenplay: The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech and Another Year (which I want to see).  I think Social Network and King's Speech win, respectively. I'd probably vote for Social Network and The Kids Are All Right.

As I said, I'll be talking about the Oscars tomorrow on The Morning Jolt; I'll also be tweeting a bit tonight at @noexpiration.

ANOTHER OSCARS UPDATE: THE CEREMONY WILL BE LONGER AND LESS MUSICAL

I'm glad that the great Ryan Bingham has been nominated for an Oscar for his song "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart. It's a bummer that you won't see him performing that song at the Academy Awards though.  I wrote about this a while back, but today it was confirmed: according to New York magazine, the Oscars won't feature any musical performances. Instead, you'll hear the recordings of the songs while you watch highlights montages from the films they are from. Lame.

THIS MORNING ON OUTQ: OSCAR MUSIC

As per my last post, this morning on OutQ, I'll be talking about songs that have been nominated for Oscars this year, by Ryan Bingham, Randy Newman and others. I'm also bringing some songs from films that were not nominated, including songs by Paul McCartney, U2, Mary J. Blige and Jack White.

RYAN BINGHAM: OSCAR NOMINEE

After winning a Golden Globe for "The Weary Kind" from the film Crazy Heart, today Ryan Bingham received an Oscar nomination for the song. He's up against two Randy Newman songs, both from The Princess and The Frog, "Almost There" and "Down In New Orleans." Also nominated: a song called "Loin de Paname" from a film I never heard of called Paris 36 and from the film Nine, "Take It All." Also up for an Oscar is Jeff Bridges, who played "Bad Blake" in Crazy Heart, he already won the Golden Globe for that role. I know he has had like four Oscar noms, but has never won. Maybe this will be his year.

Anyway, dig the above video: it is Ryan Bingham doing a solo acoustic version of "The Weary Kind" on SIRIUS XM's Outlaw Country.

CONGRATULATIONS TO RYAN BINGHAM AND JEFF BRIDGES

Well, I'm glad that Ryan Bingham won a Golden Globe tonight for Best Original Song. His song "The Weary Kind" (you can buy it on iTunes) from Crazy Heart... it kind of tied the whole film together (to paraphrase Jeff Bridges' "Dude" character). This will help his career out,  and I love when award shows are able to give much-needed exposure to deserving artists, rather than awarding the same superstars over and over. And speaking of "The Dude," congrats to Jeff Bridges for winning a Golden Globe for Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture - Drama for his portayal of "Bad Blake" in the same film.

Hopefully this will lead to an Oscar nomination and win for Ryan Bingham. The Globes, as much as they are a hack award show, are often a good way to predict the Oscars. Although it isn't always the case: last year, Bruce Springsteen rightfully won the Globe for his title track to The Wrestler, but then didn't even get a nomination for the Oscars. Oddly enough, that gives the Globes a bit more cred in my mind. Oscars, you blew it last year, don't do it again! Anyway, check out my last post to see a great video of Ryan performing "The Weary Kind" on Mojo Nixon's show on SIRIUS|XM Outlaw Country.

PAUL MCCARTNEY AND U2 GET GOLDEN GLOBE NODS

Earlier this week, the semi-bogus but semi-legit movie awards, The Golden Globes, announced the nominees for this year's ceremony (although on the music tip, The Globes rightly awarded Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler" with a trophy last year, while The Oscars didn't even nominate him).

This year's Golden Globe nominees include a U2 song that I hadn't even heard of: "Winter," from the film Brothers.  Also on the ballot is Paul McCartney's "I Want To Come Home" from Everybody's Fine. And finally, a song written by O Brother music supervisor (and awesome producer) T-Bone Burnett and singer-songwriter Ryan Bingham, "The Weary Kind," from Crazy Heart. That song is performed in the film by the star, Jeff Bridges (aka "The Dude") who apparently plays a Kristofferson/Jennings type character. So far, I've heard U2's song which is nice but didn't knock me out, and Paul's song which I really do like. I haven't heard the Crazy Heart song, but I am definitely going to see that movie, and I can't wait.

In honor of U2 and Sir Paul being nominated, here's a video of them together from Live8, performing "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band."

UPDATE: THE OSCARS STILL SUCK

Actually, that title isn't 100% fair.

I was happy that Slumdog Millionaire did so well at the Oscars last year, it deserved it, as did the film's music composer, A.R. Rahman. But not nominating Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler" was lame, as so was making all the nominated songs perform together as a medley (a decision that led nomoinee Peter Gabriel to decide to attend the Oscars, but not perform).

I've heard that this year they've decided not to have any musical performances at all. And they've just released thier short list of documentaries that they are considering for nominations this year, and it doesn't include Anvil! The Story of Anvil or It Might Get Loud. Weak!